Phoenix Housing Market Update for May 2023!

Hello everyone and welcome to a new edition of Merrill's Monday Market Madness. I’m coming to you today with an update regarding the housing market in the Phoenix Mitchell area in particular. I'm going to be talking about what happened with the housing market in the month of May now that we're just a few days into June. I'll be able to give you a recap of what our kind of overall numbers were, what we saw in May, and also going to be talking about you know year over year, what are home values and home prices doing and lastly, I'm going to talk about the rental market and what we're seeing there. I don't track the rental market as closely as I do the sales Market but there is some kind of an interesting point happening with the rental market right now. So if you're interested in any of those things hopefully I'll be able to bring you some value today as always. If you have any questions or if there's anything I share that you want more information about or you want more specifically to know what's happening with your neighborhood or your home's value or anything like that I'm always happy to put together some custom information for you as always.

 I'd like to start with a month's supply of an inventory number. I'm going to try something a little new this time if you've ever watched my show before I don't typically do it this way but I'm trying to put the numbers onto a spreadsheet for you today to make it a little easier to kind of internalize I guess. So right now active on the market we have 11,820 listings in our MLS, we have 9,022 homes that are currently pending and we've had 7 176 homes closed in the last 30 days and so that gives us a month's supply of inventory of 1.65 meaning if we were to take the the active and divide it by how many have closed in the past 30 days, that's where we're coming up with the 1.65 if no new homes were to come on the market and we continued selling homes at a pace of 7,176 homes per 30-day period then everything would be gone in 1.65 months that's basically how that number works. Now, the number that's interesting here is the active listings of 11,820. I looked at the last five Mondays so last Monday we were at 12,097 the week before that 12,226, 12,278, 12,305, and on May 1st 12,405. So basically over the past month and a week, we've dropped about 600 active listings, so homes at the moment are still selling pretty significantly faster. They're selling faster than they're coming on the market or you know in some cases they're canceling and expiring but for the most part, they are selling t faster than they are coming on the market. So I thought that was kind of interesting and then I also wanted to kind of give you some overall stats for the month of May. In May, we had 8,089 closings compared to May of 2022 which as you guys know the market was a lot harder in 22 but interest rates had started to come up quite a bit by May I mean they weren't in the sixes like they are now but they were close to five they were in the high fours at least so not a significant drop year over a year only 8%t fewer home sales happened in May of 2023 compared to May of 2022. 

The total volume was down almost 13% just because more homes sold but more importantly, the homes that sold had a higher average sales price so the average sales price on May of 2022 was $592,000 versus May of 2023 $568,000. So year over year we've seen home values drop by 4.25%, however, that and I'm gonna stop sharing my well let me finish these here so days on the Market way longer last year was 27 days this year is 65 and our average sales to list price ratio last year was 102%, now it's 98% so but what I want to talk about is this 4.25% drop because that's on average right I stopped sharing my screen here for just a second so on average we are seeing home values that have fallen by 4.25% year over year might make it seem like oh my gosh we're in a declining market but if you've watched any of my previous content what you'll know actually happened is home values dropped around 13 from May which we hit our highest average sales price in May of 2022 actually might have been June of around 600,000 June of 2022 and then it fell around 131,314 it by December and now it's bounced back so now our year over year we're only down 4%. So, last month we were down around 6 or 7%. So in May alone, we've seen the average sales price continue to increase pretty significantly and there's kind of a different  chart and graph that I kind of want to show you so at the moment prices are rising, inventory is falling home values are rising but year over a year down 4.25% because again we hit that peak and then it dropped pretty hard and now it's been going back up. We kind of have an I guess we could call it a V-shaped recovery  and let me see I'm going to just share my entire screen so I can switch between tabs here so then yeah I also wanted to show you this so I really like this. 

This is a report that gets put out by the Kronkboard report and they they have this thing called the market index which basically measures how hot is the market and according to them a completely balanced Market would have a score of a 100. um so so you know this going up is kind of showing you wow the Market's getting really really hot you know we started the year at a very very balanced Market we were actually seeing prices uh you know kind of falling really leveling out in January um and it just looks like wow you look at that line you're like holy cow the market must absolutely be on fire right but if we add 2022 in it kind of puts our year into perspective right so 2022 you know Market was absolutely on fire but as you can see by May of 2022 you know we were only at a 287 but still the market was still a lot hotter at that time than it is right now because again rates had really started Rising pretty significantly um by this time um last year so um but the year that is intriguing to me see you know we all know 2020 2021 and 2022 were all really crazy years for the housing market covid and then the post coveted insanely low interest rates and and the frenzy that ensued and the move to work from home and you saw all those things that so in my opinion the last like relatively normal if we want to call it that housing market was in 2019. um and that's as you can see by looking at this trend this is very intriguing to me because we're following the 29th we didn't start the year where 2019 was but but around mid-February it kind of met the 2019 line and has been following it very closely there's a lot of differences between now and 2019 so I'm not necessarily saying that this line is going to continue to follow that trajectory um but with how low inventory is I wouldn't be surprised if it did um you know very very low inventory and the inventory problem is kind of being compounded by the fact that um nobody really wants to um well not nobody but very many homeowners do not want to sell their home because their rate is too good so even if they wanted to sell they're not going to put their home on the market um because their rates too too good and if they have to move many times they're actually choosing to rent it and I'm gonna that's why I thought you know it'd be interesting to look at what the rental market has been doing but so I thought well let's also look at what happened in May of 2019 since we are kind of following that trend line pretty closely a lot more homes sold in the month of May 2019 10 500 units but but the volume was way less because in 2019 the average sales price was 348 000. so average sales price from May of 2019 to May of 2023 is up by more than two hundred thousand dollars higher average days on Market was really similar and the sales price to list price ratio was really similar but again getting back to the rental market so again I think one thing that we're seeing is there's an awful lot of rental properties available I was looking in our MLS this morning an important thing to know about um rentals in fact I think I'll stop sharing my screen here for just a second so I can explain this um many rental properties do not get listed in our MLS um many many property managers and private owners choose to list their properties just just on their own whether it's apartments.com or on Zillow or or on their own portals and they're not putting them in Alaska so what I have in the MLS is not a complete you know with sales almost all sales go in the MLS other than like for sale by owners and like private Equity type of deals but but I can get a very very you know let's call it 98 of all the sales that happened or 95 at least of the sales happening are in the MLS so it gives me a very very accurate picture I think with the rentals it's probably only a half or maybe two-thirds of all the homes are getting listed in the MLS so there's a great deal of of activity happening in the rental market outside of the MLS so it makes it a little harder for me to have quite as accurate of a picture and graphs and charts and and all that stuff um but uh my thought is that there's a lot of homeowners who say look I need to move and I've got this great loan where my my rate is financed at three percent so if I rented this I could cash flow five six hundred a thousand dollars a month so instead of selling it I'm gonna rent it and then I'll use that extra rental income that I have to help offset my new more expensive mortgage because I'm financing my new mortgage at six and a half percent or whatever the rate is um so there seems to be a surplus of rentals on the market right now and that's causing rental prices to really flatten out and so this is the last time I'm going to share my screen here with you so sorry about the share stop share share but I think this is really interesting so um so hopefully I'm not boring you all to death um but uh Ransom rental market numbers so in May um in our MLS we had 2062 homes rent and I'm sorry I should clarify here I'm looking at all rentals not just single family homes so if it was put in the MLS and it rented 2062 units right and the average price of those homes that rented 2 390. if you look at that compared to last year almost an identical number of units um and almost an identical price in fact average rental price only up 29 year over year so I went back five years if we go back to 2019 1707 then the 2020 and this could have been maybe artificially low because of covid um 1767 then 2021 so it Rose sweat sixty dollars that year and then it Rose almost almost other yeah just over three hundred dollars that year then it Rose almost 300 that year so average rents over the past five years have just absolutely skyrocketed and this year over year 2022 to 2023 only an increase in rents of you know 30 bucks it is by far the lowest year over year rent average rent price increase that we've seen and it's also the homes are taking longer to rent than they have at any time over the last five years with an average days on Market of 35 days so the rental market right now is is kind of tough and I again my theory on that is that very many many homes are available for rent because of many homeowners who maybe wouldn't have otherwise wanted to be landlords are choosing to hold on to the homes because they've got the money so cheap which I don't disagree I love to invest I think it's a great strategy if you're thinking about uh you know you've got a home and you're willing to consider becoming a landlord and an investor um and you've got that money financed at three percent it might make a lot of sense to turn it into a rental matter of fact if you'd like to know what your home would rent for I'd be happy to do that report for you speaking of investing I wasn't planning on announcing this otherwise I would have had it pulled up um but I am teaching a class tomorrow called you must invest in real estate um so if you're interested in learning more about investing and just sort of like this is sort of a beginner's class like you've maybe never invested in real estate before and you just want to know kind of where do I start how do I get started what's entailed what kind of returns can I expect what is depreciation and just sort of like 1031 exchanges and and and you know just some of the basics of real estate investing um I'm going to be doing class tomorrow at 4 P.M um and um I don't have the link prepared but anyway if you're interested in attending it tomorrow at four o'clock Pacific time I mean it'll be on soon so if you're interested in attending let me know and I will get you the link just send me a DM or something like that um and I'm sure if we email this video out we'll put it in the email as well anyway that is all I have for you all today I hope you found this information helpful let me know if you have any questions and if there's anything I can do for you have a great day!

What does this mean to you? If you're even a little bit interested in learning more about participating in the Phoenix housing market as a seller, buyer, or investor... you NEED to know this stuff! Or at least work with someone who is obsessed with the market stats. Reach out to me today so we can start working on making your real estate dreams a reality!