Phoenix Area Housing Market Update for August 15th!

Hello everyone and welcome to a new episode of Merrill's Monday Morning Market madness coming at you today with some updates regarding the Phoenix housing market. I'm joined by special guest star Terry Cottle from the team welcome Terry, thanks for being on today

T: Oh, it's my pleasure I've been looking forward to it.

Yep absolutely! So today, we are going to be talking a lot about months' supply of inventory if you've watched any of our previous episodes, you'll know that we begin every episode by looking at the month's supply of inventory for the entire market. So right now we have active on the market 18,729 listings, there are 8,588 homes that have closed in the past 30 days and there are I'm sorry I just totally screwed that up 8,588 homes that are pending, 5 514 homes that have closed in the past 30 days. So the months of I have an inventory we're just taking the active listing count and dividing it by how many homes sold in the last 30 days giving us a current month's supply of inventory of 3.40 now. The months of live inventory a week ago was 3.19 so that is that number is continuing to rise. The reason why it's important, the reason why I lead every episode with the monthly supply of inventory is it gives you a reference point for how hot the market is, to give you an idea at the hottest part of me tracking the months by inventory the lowest we ever saw it was a 0.4. 

T: Not even half a month.

So if you were to imagine, no homes are allowed to be listed ever again. So the only thing that's available to sell is what's already on the market. How long would it take at the pace which homes are selling for everything to be sold? Okay, so that's what a month's supply of inventory basically tracks and the idea is historical that a month's supply of inventory of around four would be a balanced market month's supply of inventory of five or greater would be a buyer's market but what we've seen is the market has shifted so fast that even though the months by inventory numbers that's currently at a 3.4 which would typically be a slightly leaning seller's market we're pretty much seeing an extreme buyers market out there, right?

T: Because the inventory is increasing so fast it's almost like we're already at to the point where it's a six-month inventory we just had so low inventory.

Well, and it just feels so different because of what we kind of got used to over the last couple of years. So we are in a scenario where average prices have been dropping a little bit not too dramatic the highest average sales price that we saw was about five 597 and it's currently at 550 so we've seen a little bit of a drop in average sales prices you know the sale sales to list price ratio we were seeing homes selling for an average of like 2% above the list price and of course some homes yeah 20% above the list price,

T: Wow we're back down to 97. 

Now we're back down to 97.98 so the people are negotiating many buyers right now that we're working with are actually getting concessions which means that they're going in with their offer of whatever it is and then they're also asking the seller to give them $10,000 back to help pay for their closing costs or buy down their interest rate or different things like that. So we're seeing some interesting things but one thing that we noticed and we decided to research this morning was…. Okay, so we know the monthly supply of inventory for the whole market is a 3.4 but what is it in each area because it does feel like some parts of the valley are hotter than others there are some areas where it feels like homes are still moving pretty good there and then there are other parts where it's like molasses so it's not moving at all so we kind of created a spreadsheet here and don't it might be confusing to look at but Terry's going to break it down for you and explain it all. 

T: So really quick so that we're going to talk about these in the shortest amount of time to sell your home and month supply and inventory to the longest and so we're going to kind of talk about that and review that so Coolidge still looks like it's on fire because it's 1.88 months supply and inventory so really affordable there can move really quickly so Tempe is next 2.65, Mesa 3.26, Florence 3.35, Chandler 3.52, Gold canyon 3.57, Arizona city 3.58, Gilbert 3.61, Casa grande 3.92, Scottsdale 4.12, Apache Junction 4.28, Queen creek 4.83, Maricopa 4.96, San Tan 5.29, and Paradise valley 6.59. And, so we were looking at that like wow this is so interesting everything's so different and what we came to terms with was Coolidge is super affordable and it's the same distance to downtown Chandler as Santan where Santan's price has prices have risen to almost Queen creek prices but it's the same distance. So if you were looking for a cheaper home that you could commute into the city I would probably you'd probably be picking Coolidge over San Tan because the community is so much shorter the same distance and so much more affordable.

Yeah! I mean if commute was the only factor right you know so it's very interesting you know we were pretty surprised to see you know Queen Creek, Maricopa, and San Tan Valley over the last two years, I mean the whole market has been hot but over the last two years those places have just gone absolutely yes like just nuts how hot those markets have been.

T: Exactly!

And, so now they're one of the slowest. Obviously, Paradise valley has a little bit higher months by inventory but that's probably primarily to do with their price range than it is to do with the desirability of the area because I mean the amount of fire we couldn't afford that but if we could afford it we would probably all live in San Tan, right? Oh, I'm sorry in Paradise Valley that's what I meant to say. So and by the way, we only looked at East Valley cities on here, maybe in a future episode we'll look at west valley cities as well. So if you want to see your area we will we also as you can see we broke it down by price range just to see, hey is there a significant trend by price range and there's really not I mean obviously 1 to 200 is probably a little higher not because listen everyone would love a home between 1 and hundred but what's actually available between one and two hundred is so trashed that no one wants to buy 

T: Half burnt homes

Yeah! half burned down homes basically. okay, then two to three hundred though that number doesn't surprise me only at one point exactly and then after that, it's all mostly kind of industries and doesn't start getting really high until you get over a million dollars.

T: But if you look at Coolidge that's these two low ones the two to three and three to four that's all cool so it has to do with the price range.

 But you know Arizona city is probably not quite I  don't know I'd have to look at an average sales price of Arizona city versus Coolidge but I'm going to assume that they're fairly similar average sales price but Arizona cities MSI is almost double what yes it is it's 3.58. So i don't know I think Coolidge is a good mix of like affordability and still within commuting distance exactly right well we'll see we'll keep an eye on it for you guys and that's all we have for you today. So hope you found this information helpful and if you have any questions oh no no I didn't mean to do that stay I meant to stop sharing my screen how do I do that let's see share stop there we go so if you have any questions or you want to know more about what the market's doing in a specific area or you want to know an update regarding the value of your home or you wonder how long it would take to sell your home or just anything like that hit us up we'd be happy to help and thanks again for watching have a great day!

What does this mean to you? If you're even a little bit interested in learning more about participating in the Phoenix housing market as a seller, buyer, or investor... you NEED to know this stuff! Or at least work with someone who is obsessed with the market stats. Reach out to me today so we can start working on making your real estate dreams a reality!