Is the Phoenix Housing Market on a downturn? 2021 real estate trends for the East Valley

Is the Phoenix Housing Market on a downturn? 2021 real estate trends for the East Valley

Hello, and welcome to a new edition of Merrill's Market Madness. Today I am going to be talking about a shift that we're starting to see in this insane seller’s market that we have been experiencing for quite a while. We are going to be, we're definitely seeing inventory. Increase at a pretty significant pace.

And I'm excited to dig into the numbers with you before I do that though, I always like to start off as you know, by looking at our month's supply of inventory numbers. Let me just share my screen with you real quick and show you what we have going on in our MLS. Right now we have 5,803 active listings.

And then if we narrow to look at how many listings we have pending, there are 11,742 which is a little lower than we've been seeing. So the active listing count is up a little bit. I'm going to dig more into that in a moment, depending on the listing. Down. We've mostly over the last several months have had pending listings in the 12 thousand range.

So a little bit lower than we've been seeing for the number of listings that have closed that are pending. And then the number of listings that have closed over the past 30 days is at 9,172. So if you just kind of assumed if no new listings were to come on the market, how long would it take.

Everything to be sold. So at the pace at which homes are currently selling, it gives us a month's supply of inventory of 0.63 now to be in a balanced market, we need them on supply of inventory today. At least a four, four months supply of inventory, maybe five, and for sure, in order for it to really start to shift into a buyer's market where values would start to decline, we'd need at least a six-month supply, if not more.

So we still have an X 0.63. it is still very, very, very low. And we still have quite a long ways to go before, before I would expect, home values to suddenly fall or for the market to massively shift. but we are seeing inventory increase. And so that is. The first sign and I'm going to dig more into those numbers here in just a moment before I do that, though.

If you've been following my show, you know, that I like to watch very closely the interest rates. I do think that if interest rates were to suddenly, You know, increase at a, at a rapid pace that that could cause,  you know, home the pace at which homes are selling and the pace at which homes are appreciating to decrease.

And as you can see from this chart here, this blue line is 30. Fixed-rate mortgages and what has been priced out over the past year. And so right now we're at a 2.9, 8% on average, which is a pretty typical, pretty typical, interest rate, for what we've been seeing. As you can see.

Building very close to 3% here for the last couple of months. The highest that it spiked up to was 3.18% on April 1st. The lowest it will ever hit was 2.79% on January 14th. But again, just even if you just look at a three-year trend, we're still among the lowest that we've seen over the past three years, same thing, five years.

I mean, even back in, you know, when rates got really, really low there, they never got as low as they are now in 3%. and then, you know, if you back it all the way out to, you know,  the rates are just still continuing to be at all-time lows and that will continue to help affordability. And, you know, I think more, buyers and investors are interested in purchasing right now while money is so cheap, especially if you believe like I do that, inflation will probably exceed 3%.

And so it's almost, It's, it's not, it's not free money because of the way that, mortgages are amortized, but it still is a very affordable, very affordable money. So, let me stop my screen share here. And then now I'm going to jump into the inventory cause that's the big change. We really have not seen a big drop in demand.

The same number of homes are selling as we've been seeing over the last several months in April. In the month of April, RMLS saw 10,206 home sales in may 9,671. And in June we saw 10,216. So the number of homes that are selling is remaining very constant at near that 10,000 homes a month that might. As we had one when we get the July and August numbers and I do believe it will fall slightly.

Yeah. You know, as I mentioned, but we were seeing the total number of pending listings is down slightly, but I don't expect a significant drop-off maybe 10%. We'll see, you know, 9,000 homes closing instead of 10,000. Oh. In the months of July and August. So, you know, that's just historically a pretty normal cycle.

May and June are typically the biggest months for home closings. And then by July and August, you know, it's, I don't know what, you know, every one it's too hot or school has already started or whatever the reasons are. we start to see that the total number of listing selling,  the home selling goes down a little bit, but the very interesting number is the active listings.

So on June 1st, Of this year, we had 4,821 active listings. And on July 1st we had 5,708. So that means that in the month of July, I'm sorry, throughout the month of June, we gained 887 active listings, which is an 18% increase. I mean, that is a very, very significant amount of listings to gain in just one month.

So I do, you know, if that trend continues right. If we continue to gain. 887 active listings every single month. Then within four or five months, we'll be up to 10,000, you know, 10,000 active listings. and that'll still be a seller’s market, right. But if, if that continues for a year, or if demand starts to fall and then that also continues for a year or two, then we could start to see a more balanced.

We're still very far from that inventory is still so dramatically low, that it's still very much a seller’s market, and we're still expecting home values to continue to increase, but probably not quite at the frenzy to pace that we've been seeing. So these final numbers are about to share with you,  blew my mind.

Okay. So in June 2010, The average price of all the properties that sold in our MLS was $369,288 in June of 2021. The average price was $507,573. That if you had bought an average home in June of 2020 for that 369,000, you gained $138,285 in equity in just one year. That breaks out to be $11,523 a month and is 37%.

Year over year increase in the average sales price. and so I think that what we'll probably likely see over the next 12 months, again, no crystal ball world war three could break out tomorrow and change everything. But based on the fact that we're seeing supply increase right now, and the fact that affordability is becoming a factor, As long as rates continue to stay low.

I think we'll continue to see home prices go up, but I definitely don't think we're going to see an increase of 37% over the next year. I think more likely we'll probably see something around 10 to 15. so I still believe it's a great time to buy them again. I don't, I don't think we're in a bubble where home values are suddenly going to come crashing down.

But inventory is. And that's good news for buyers. Hopefully, make it a little bit less competitive. Although I don't know, we took a listing last week, got 15 offers, and sold significantly above let's price. What we're continuing to see is that you know, the beautiful, totally fixed-up move-in, ready, remodeled type homes that are priced fairly accurately.

Are still bloodbaths. It's the homes that need a little bit of work, the homes that need some updating or need some paint and carpet. those ones are struggling a little bit, and we're finally starting to see some homes sit on the market. interestingly though, the homes that sold in June of this year, At that average price of 507, 500, 507,000 sold for an average of 3% above the asking price.

And that's pretty significant when you consider we're looking at a sample size of 10,200 homes and sold in the month of June.10,216 homes. This will the month of June. And still, even with that big sample size, we're still seeing homes sell for an average price of 3% above the list price. So just to make the math on that easy, for those of you who don't think good in math and percentages, if you have a.

Versus $500,000 house, or you listed it at an average of $500,000. You're selling it for an average of 515,000 right now. So pretty, pretty neat, some fascinating things going on in the market right now. Again, still, a seller’s market will continue to be a seller’s market for quite a long time, but inventory is increasing.

So let's keep an eye on that. I'll continue to keep you posted as things progress, and we'll go from there. Thank you all for watching and have a great day.

What does this mean to you? If you're even a little bit interested in learning more about participating in the Phoenix housing market as a seller, buyer, or investor... you NEED to know this stuff! Or at least work with someone who is obsessed with the market stats. Reach out to me today so we can start working on making your real estate dreams a reality!

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