Gilbert, Arizona Housing Market Update - June 2022
Posted by Merrill Jencks on Wednesday, June 8, 2022 at 12:14 AM
By Merrill Jencks / June 8, 2022
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Gilbert, Arizona Housing Market Update - June 2022
Hello, my name is Merrill Jencks I am with the Big Helper Real Estate Group at EXP Realty and I'm coming to you today with an update regarding the housing market in Gilbert Arizona and this is June of 2022. So if you live in Gilbert, if you own a home in Gilbert or you're renting or you are thinking about moving to Gilbert I think that you'll find this information very helpful especially if you kind of like numbers and data and you want to know not just what are people saying and what's the news saying but what's the actual data and why and what's really happening with the market because I think there's a lot of narratives out there and I always like to kind of back it up with the numbers. Now. my favorite way to measure the temperature of the market is by calculating a number called the month's supply of inventory it's very simple we just take the number of active listings divided by the number of homes that have sold in the past 30 days.
So right now the monthly supply of inventory in Gilbert is 1.06 which is a balanced market that would probably have about four months' supply of inventory and you know and a buyer's market where we start to see home values fall would probably have more like 5 or 6 months supply of inventory. So at the moment, it's still extremely low, there's still just not a ton of options if buyers want to buy a house right now you know whatever it is they're looking for they don't have 20 possible homes that they love equally right, they're still usually just only a couple of homes that they really love but they do have a lot more options than they had even just a month or two ago so the month supply inventory 1.06 will compare that to about two months ago, three months ago it was as low as like a 0.27 was the lowest that I saw it at one point for Gilbert.
So yes, inventory is still low compared to you know all-time balanced markets but it's increasing and it's increasing very rapidly the number of homes available for sale homes is being listed at the moment homes are coming on the market much faster than they're selling, to give you an idea in the past 30 days we saw 360 homes sell in Gilbert and only 7 of those this is just an interesting tidbit not related to the month's supply of inventory anymore only 7 of those homes were below $400,000 that number kind of blew my mind only 7 homes in Gilbert sold below $400,000 in the past 30 days, the average price of the homes that sold in Gilbert in the past 30 days was $700,737 the day average days on market was only 20 and the sold to list price ratio was 103% which means that on average homes that sold in Gilbert went 3 above the list price in the past 30 days.
But here's the thing that you have to remember because the market doesn't feel that hot today like most buy most homes are not going 3% over list price if you were getting it under contract today but the homes that have sold in the past 30 days so let's just call it the homes that sold in May, they went under contract in March and April when the market was still hotter than it is right now I think that we will see over the next 30 days that sold list price ratio is going to come down to right around 100% maybe not in the next 30 days but certainly within the next 60 to 90 days, those numbers are going to normalize. Now, let's look back a year ago, so the same 30-day period one year ago there were 524 homes that sold so only 360 sold in the past 30 days so we've actually seen a decrease in the number of closings by what was it 31%. 31% drop in home selling as compared to the same time period one year ago that's a pretty significant drop and combine with significantly increasing inventory but the average sales price of the homes that sold a year ago was $562,630, so the average sales price still increased from you know May of 2021 to May of 2022 in Gilbert by 26% so that is massive increase home values are still rising and they're still rising very rapidly.
However, you know the main thing to remember is that inventory is rising and demand is falling. I'm going to kind of share my screen with you here real quick so I can show you a visual on this, so there's a report that we subscribe to called the Cromford report and they have a market index and you see I'm looking specifically at Gilbert and basically you know it peaked out at 530. In a balanced market, the index would be at a 100% okay so a completely flat home value is that a hundred it's at five it was at 530 somewhere between March and April of 2022 and it is currently at a 250.7 so not only is it falling but it's not an issue about it falling if 530 is insane the issue is how fast it's falling right and that's why we're you know expecting to see the home values are not going to continue to rise another 25% in fact I think you know given the current market sentiment and gas prices and grocery prices and all that stuff we may no longer be, I wouldn't be surprised if we're not going to see home values increase in Gilbert at all for the rest of the year at least but I also don't believe home values are going to fall because we're still at a 250 balance markets all the way down here at 100, so we took about a long way to go before we hit 100. but also I wanna 2021 and 2020 we're crazy right I can throw these years up here and you'll see you know particularly the 2021 numbers or we're still well below the market index for 2021 and we're about to go below the market index for 2020. but those were years when the home values were just skyrocketing right, but let's compare it to some of the years where we were in these years, were not even balanced markets.
These years home values were rising in all of those years 2012 to 2019 even a little bit of 2011 home prices were rising in those in all of those years and as you can see we're still way above and what's the lowest 2014 and home values rose in 2014 and the market index was right around 100 right around 97. that was the last balanced market that we saw and we're at a 250. so still significantly above a balanced market so I guess what I'm really saying is no need to panic, I'm not advising that people should rush and put their home on the market purely speculatively but if you need to sell you know if you've been thinking about a move if you've been wanting to downsize or you know anything like that now might be a good opportunity before the market cools off even further but I'm not predicting home values to fall. The inventory is still low enough that home prices are stable enough people have so much equity in their homes there are no distress sales happening they're really solid loans unemployment is practically zero so a lot of economic indicators say you know what yes the market housing market is slowing down and guess what that's what the fed wanted you to know when they're raising rates they wanted to slow down inflation and so what is happening is exactly what they expected to happen but I don't think it's going to get to the point where suddenly there's so much available person obviously this trend that we're on right now continues right if we stay on this downward trend for the next year and now suddenly there's you know five times more homes available for sale than there are right now then we could see home values start to come down but we've got a long way to go before we're gonna hit that point.
So I'll continue to keep you updated on the market and what it's doing but as of right now home appreciation is going to slow down and move probably pretty close to zero especially for the rest of the year as we enter our slower buying season in Phoenix but home prices are most likely not falling anytime soon hope you found this information helpful if you know anyone who you think could benefit from my analytical approach to the market please share this video with them and thank you so much for watching have a great day!
What does this mean to you? If you're even a little bit interested in learning more about participating in the Phoenix housing market as a seller, buyer, or investor... you NEED to know this stuff! Or at least work with someone who is obsessed with the market stats. Reach out to me today so we can start working on making your real estate dreams a reality!
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