Getting a pulse on the Gilbert, AZ housing market!
Getting a pulse on the Gilbert, AZ housing market!
Hello and welcome to a new episode of the Gilbert Housing Market Update.Today I want to give you some updates as to exactly what is going on with house values and inventory and interest rates particularly if you live in Gilbert, Arizona to give you an idea if you already own a home what's been going on with you know your home's value and to give you an idea of what we probably expect to see moving forward and if you don't own a home to hopefully encourage you to get in and buy a house as soon as possible and hopefully I'll be able to convince you that throughout this episode. So, right now active on the market in Gilbert you know the total number of active listings is 281 and the total number of pending listings it's 438 so we have you know almost twice not quite twice but you know quite a few more homes under contract than what's available.
So if you're driving around and you feel like you see a lot of signs in the yards, it's actually very very low you know two-thirds of the signs that you see are homes that are already under contract there are 353 homes that have sold in the past 30 days giving us a month's supply of inventory number of 0.8% meaning if no new homes were to come on the market let's just assume that there we continue to sell another 353 homes in Gilbert over the next 30 days well, it would take three weeks and a couple of days for everything that's currently available to sell in order to reach a balanced market where home values would be stable we typically would expect to see around a four month supply of inventory and right now again we're at 0.8% so, now the flip side of that coin is the inventory is rising the total number of homes available in Gilbert today is higher than it was a month ago and the month's supply of inventory at 0.8% it was as low as 0.3% so the month's supply of inventory has doubled but it's still extremely extremely low and as you're going to see here in just a minute we're still seeing home values rise and despite the rising interest rates unless you've been living under a rock you probably know average interest rates you know for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage they were in the high twos low threes around the beginning of the year according to Freddie Mac's website they're now at 5.3% which they only update that once a week I think it might even be closer to 5.5% now so you know rates are rising you know pretty rapidly but it's still a supply and demand issue there's you know yes, demand has fallen a little bit and supply has risen a little bit but you know we've moved about an inch and we need to move a mile in order to reach a balanced market.
So, over the past 30 days, the cheapest property that sold in Gilbert was a 1 bedroom, 1 bathroom 600 square foot condo that sold for $220,000 and the most expensive property to have sold in Gilbert over the past 30 days was $2.7 million, 6 bedroom, five and a half bathroom, 6,400 square foot house on an acre, the average price of all the homes that sold in the past three days in Gilbert was $685,969. Now, that's just over the past 30 days if I look at the 30 days prior to that so you know March 15 through April 15th, the average price then has increased by $26,809 for the past 30 days compared to the previous 30 days we've seen an increase in the average sales price of almost $27,000 which is a 4% increase in just one month so average prices despite the rising rates, despite the lowering demand, despite the rising inventory average prices have still increased by 4% in just one month and compared to and also the sold to list price ratio you know looking at you know what you're listing a home compared to what it's selling for over the past 30 days was still 103% so on average homes are still selling for 3% above the asking price and the average days on market is 18 days.
Now, if we look at the same 30 day period a year ago so instead of looking a month ago we look a year ago the average price was $138,354 giving us a year-over-year you know year-over-year increase in home values of $147,615 or 27% and the average sold to list price ratio a year ago was actually 104 so you can see we were at 104 now we're only at 103 so oh my gosh the sky is falling right and the average days on market a year ago was 16 days and now it's 18 days. So days on the market is also increasing so in conclusion again you already know rates are rising inventory is rising but inventory normally rises this time of year because there's a huge surge of people who want to sell their home in the spring and summer because it's previously been made in June previously been the busiest biggest months of the year for home selling so it's a huge time for people to put their home on the market people who want to time the market and put it on at the perfect time, the downside is that because of the rising rates instead of seeing a huge we saw the normal huge surge of listings we didn't see the huge surge in demand has probably fallen by about 8%.
So we're seeing the huge surge in listings and demand is falling slightly and so that's causing you to know homes are not quite as competitive and some stuff is sitting a little bit longer and some homes are having to do some price reductions and things like that but the lower end is still very very competitive and very very pristine custom updated homes are also we're still seeing very very competitive so we are expecting to see home values really level off I seriously doubt we're gonna see an increase of another 4% over the next 30 days you know with the rising rates and with the market slowing down we might only see home prices increase by 1% or 2% over the next couple of months and over the next year we'll probably see prices increase maybe flatten out worst-case scenario but best case scenario or probably most likely scenario over the next 12 months home prices will probably increase somewhere in the range of 5-8% in Gilbert would be my production which is you know we were at 27 over the last 12 months. So it's a huge drop but inventory is still too low to where we're gonna think oh my gosh home values are gonna start plummeting, it's nothing like that it's nothing like 2008 there is almost nothing available for sale not to mention that average homeowner now, this is a United states stat this isn't Gilbert specific but the average loan to value for a US homeowner right now is about 35 so people only oh you know let's just say hypothetically if the value of your house fell by 10 no one wants that and no one thinks that's going to happen but if it did you probably wouldn't walk away from it right because you still have a huge amount of equity in the house not to mention that you have a normal 30 if you have a mortgage at all you have a normal 30-year fixed-rate mortgage you don't have some you know interest-only balloon payment negative amortization craziness that was going on back in 2008.
So, yeah! home values are going to stabilize and will probably continue to rise but at a much lower pace than what we've been seeing over the past couple of years anyway I hope you found this information helpful if you would like an update regarding the value of your home specifically or you know of anyone who maybe would appreciate my analytical approach to the market and kind of numbers-driven approach I would absolutely love an opportunity to talk to you and meet with you and help you out so thank you very much for watching and I hope you have a great day!